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高盛最新判断“油价短期或破 2008 年 147 高点” （复盘五轮原油冲击）
华 华尔街见闻 @华尔街见闻
One Sentence Summary
Based on Goldman Sachs' latest research, this article analyzes the long-term impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on oil prices, arguing that the focus should be on permanent capacity loss due to infrastructure damage rather than just the duration of the blockade.
Summary
This article summarizes an in-depth report by Goldman Sachs' commodities research team on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on the crude oil market. The report points out that the market should not focus solely on the short-term duration of a blockade, but rather on the physical damage to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and the resulting long-term loss of production capacity. By reviewing five major supply shocks over the past 50 years, Goldman Sachs highlights the lag in capacity recovery and notes that the rebuilding of global Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) will further drive up oil prices. Additionally, the article discusses the self-regulating mechanisms of high oil prices (such as demand destruction and fuel substitution). Finally, the report quantifies the specific impact of various risk factors on oil prices through scenario modeling, providing a clear analytical framework for investors.
Main Points
* 1. Focus on long-term capacity loss rather than short-term blockade durationGoldman Sachs believes that the speed of infrastructure repair and the permanent loss of production capacity after the strait reopens are the key factors determining the oil price pivot for the coming years. * 2. Historical review shows that supply shocks have long-term lag effectsBased on data from five major supply shocks over the past 50 years, affected countries still had an average production loss of 42% four years later, signaling a potential long-term supply gap. * 3. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) construction will drive up oil pricesGlobal efforts to accelerate the construction of strategic reserves in response to uncertainty are expected to add approximately $12/barrel of upward pressure on oil prices by the end of 2027. * 4. High oil prices have self-regulating mechanismsHigh oil prices will eventually curb their own rise by accelerating energy efficiency improvements, fuel substitution, and dragging down economic growth (demand destruction), a phenomenon known as 'high prices kill high prices.'
Metadata
AI Score
82
Website mp.weixin.qq.com
Published At Today
Length 1780 words (about 8 min)
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鲍奕龙 2026-03-20 18:04 北京
以下文章来源于：华尔街见闻Max 华尔街见闻Max 华尔街见闻姊妹号，直击全球市场风暴，助力投资者决策。
高盛认为布伦特原油或突破2008历史高点，油价"长期维持在100美元"的风险上升。
追风交易台消息，3月19日，高盛Daan Struyven的大宗商品研究团队研报指出，在霍尔木兹海峡通道受阻局面持续的背景下，油价上涨趋势很难停止。 如果这种低迷状态持续，让市场开始担忧供应中断可能延长，那么布伦特原油价格很可能突破2008年历史高点。
数据显示，布油价格在2008年7月曾冲高至147.50美元/桶，创历史新高。
此外研报强调，任何关于美国可能限制原油出口的风险预期升温，都会进一步拉大布伦特与美国WTI原油之间的价差。
最重要的是，高盛判断海峡重新开放之后的世界，由于基础设施被破坏，产量可能长期无法恢复。
复盘史上五次原油冲击，大型供应冲击往往持续多年
高盛基准假设是4月开始逐步修复霍尔木兹海峡通行流量，价格在2026年四季度回落至70美元区间。
问题在于，这条路径对供给侧的隐含前提很强——不仅要重开，还要在重开后较快恢复生产。 为了评估“修复速度”，高盛回看过去50年五次最大的供给冲击，测算受冲击国家在四年后平均仍有42%的产量损失。主要原因通常是油田、管道、港口等基础设施遭到物理破坏，以及后续投资严重不足。
因此高盛强调若伊朗及周边地区生产潜力遭受实质性损害，油价在风险情景下维持在100美元以上的时间可能远超市场当前预期。
这条线索为什么会被放大？因为中东供给权重太高。
2025年伊朗原油产量为350万桶/日，另外七个波斯湾国家合计2180万桶/日，合计约占全球原油产量的30%。此外该地区合计650万桶/日的海上油田产能，因工程复杂、安全要求高，复产可能更为缓慢。 报告分析，如果伊朗出现与历史均值相近的42%产量缺口，其原油产量将比冲击前低约150万桶/日。
各国可能疯狂囤油，这本身就会推高价格
霍尔木兹危机带来的持续不确定性，可能从2027年起触发全球性的战略石油储备（SPR）加速建设。
高盛分析原因有三：
> 第一，到2026年底，经合组织（OECD）国家的战略储备可能已被消耗至很低水平； > > > 第二，这次巨大的冲击可能促使各国政府提高未来的储备目标； > > > 第三，美国向市场提供的1.72亿桶战略石油储备属于“交换”而非直接出售，后续需要归还并支付溢价。 高盛估算，如果全球战略储备建设速度比基线情景加快120万桶/日，那么将为2027年底的油价带来约12美元/桶的额外上行压力。
高油价最终会杀死高油价
目前全球几乎所有的原油闲置产能都因霍尔木兹海峡中断而被困在波斯湾。
高盛指出，历史经验表明，如果没有大规模的持续性产能损失，在海峡重新开放后，以沙特为首的OPEC核心国家很可能动用这些闲置产能来稳定市场，弥补中断期间的产量损失。 在过去的供应危机中，沙特和阿联酋的增产通常在两个季度内就能抵消70%至90%的供应损失。 释放限制产能对于油价的压制效果有限，真正的杀死高油价的是它本身。
高盛认为高油价将加速能效提升和燃料替代，降低经济增长对石油的依赖。其次高油价将直接拖累全球经济，特别是能源密集型产业的活动。
欧洲的工业天然气需求在2022年能源危机后，至今仍比危机前低20%-25%，这就是前车之鉴。
综合来看，天平仍倾向涨价一端
高盛强调无论是短期还是到2027年，石油价格的风险在总体上都是偏向上行的。 几次历史性供应冲击的持续性表明，在供应中断时间更长或出现大规模持续性产能损失的风险情景下，油价长期维持在100美元/桶上方的可能性真实存在。
高盛对2027年第四季度布伦特油价的基准预测价格是69美元/桶，报告模拟了不同风险情景下的偏离幅度：
> 霍尔木兹海峡中断60天：油价+24美元； > > > 中东产能长期损失200万桶/日：油价+20美元； > > > 上述两者同时发生：油价+42美元； > > > OPEC核心国长期增产100万桶/日：油价-4美元； > > > 全球战略储备加速建设：油价+12美元。 对于投资者而言，当前的关键不在于海峡何时重开，而在于重开之后，中东的石油产能到底留下了多少永久性的伤疤。后者将决定未来数年的油价中枢。 推荐阅读： 黄金白银为何暴跌？ ⭐星标华尔街见闻Max，好内容不错过⭐****
本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表平台观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。
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华 华尔街见闻 @华尔街见闻
One Sentence Summary
Based on Goldman Sachs' latest research, this article analyzes the long-term impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on oil prices, arguing that the focus should be on permanent capacity loss due to infrastructure damage rather than just the duration of the blockade.
Summary
This article summarizes an in-depth report by Goldman Sachs' commodities research team on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on the crude oil market. The report points out that the market should not focus solely on the short-term duration of a blockade, but rather on the physical damage to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and the resulting long-term loss of production capacity. By reviewing five major supply shocks over the past 50 years, Goldman Sachs highlights the lag in capacity recovery and notes that the rebuilding of global Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) will further drive up oil prices. Additionally, the article discusses the self-regulating mechanisms of high oil prices (such as demand destruction and fuel substitution). Finally, the report quantifies the specific impact of various risk factors on oil prices through scenario modeling, providing a clear analytical framework for investors.
Main Points
* 1. Focus on long-term capacity loss rather than short-term blockade duration
Goldman Sachs believes that the speed of infrastructure repair and the permanent loss of production capacity after the strait reopens are the key factors determining the oil price pivot for the coming years.
* 2. Historical review shows that supply shocks have long-term lag effects
Based on data from five major supply shocks over the past 50 years, affected countries still had an average production loss of 42% four years later, signaling a potential long-term supply gap.
* 3. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) construction will drive up oil prices
Global efforts to accelerate the construction of strategic reserves in response to uncertainty are expected to add approximately $12/barrel of upward pressure on oil prices by the end of 2027.
* 4. High oil prices have self-regulating mechanisms
High oil prices will eventually curb their own rise by accelerating energy efficiency improvements, fuel substitution, and dragging down economic growth (demand destruction), a phenomenon known as 'high prices kill high prices.'
Key Quotes
* For investors, the key at the moment is not when the strait will reopen, but rather how many permanent scars will be left on Middle Eastern oil capacity once it does. * Looking back at the five largest supply shocks over the past 50 years, Goldman Sachs estimates that affected countries still had an average production loss of 42% four years later. * Releasing restricted capacity has a limited effect on suppressing oil prices; what truly kills high oil prices is the prices themselves. * If the pace of global strategic reserve construction accelerates by 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the baseline scenario, it will add approximately $12/barrel of upward pressure on oil prices by the end of 2027.
AI Score
82
Website mp.weixin.qq.com
Published At Today
Length 1780 words (about 8 min)
Tags
Crude Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs
Strait of Hormuz
Macroeconomics
Commodities
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