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周五从“升级到降级”，投资者“左右打脸”！特朗普夜间称“正逐步考虑减少对伊军事行动”，油价回落美股期货上涨
华 华尔街见闻 @华尔街见闻
One Sentence Summary
This article reports the violent fluctuations in financial markets under alternating signals of escalation and de-escalation in the Middle East conflict; US stocks plunged on Friday due to geopolitical tensions, then reversed after Trump suggested considering de-escalating military actions at night, while oil prices retreated but still posted weekly gains of about 9%.
Summary
This article reports the violent fluctuations in financial markets on the 21st day of the Middle East conflict in March 2026. On Friday, during trading hours, markets digested a series of escalation signals—the US might deploy additional ground forces to the Middle East, evaluate occupying Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran's refusal to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz—leading to accelerated declines in US stocks, with Nasdaq falling 2%. However, after the market close, Trump posted on social media that the US was considering gradually de-escalating military operations against Iran, prompting a swift market reversal; the S&P 500 ETF surged over 1% in after-hours trading, with oil prices retreating from over $108 to around $108. Brent crude accumulated weekly gains of about 9% and monthly gains of nearly 50%, with fund managers' net long positions hitting a six-year high. The article also analyzes the impact of surging energy prices on Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, with markets pricing in a 50% probability of rate hikes in 2026.
Main Points
* 1. Friday's market experienced a dramatic intraday reversal from escalation to de-escalationDigesting escalation signals like troop deployments and evaluating the occupation of Kharg Island during trading hours caused US stocks to plunge, then reversed after Trump's post-market statement considering de-escalation, leaving both bulls and bears caught off guard. * 2. Brent crude accumulated weekly gains of about 9%, monthly gains of nearly 50%Oil prices hit their highest level since mid-2022, Dubai crude futures surged 16.48% in a single day, and fund managers' net long positions increased to the strongest bullish stance in over six years. * 3. Surging energy prices reshape Federal Reserve policy expectationsMarkets have priced in a 50% probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, with analysts divided on rate hike judgments; oil price surges may cause financial condition shocks. * 4. Near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruption concernsAbout 20% of global石油transits through here; Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's oil exports, could be included in operations; IEA data shows this conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in history.
Metadata
AI Score
78
Website mp.weixin.qq.com
Published At Yesterday
Length 2189 words (about 9 min)
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中东冲突进入第21天，市场在同一个交易日内经历了从升级到降级的剧烈反转。
据 华尔街见闻文章，周五盘后，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，美方正考虑逐步降级在中东针对伊朗政权所开展的各项重大军事行动，并表示已非常接近实现既定目标。
消息一出，此前收跌逾1.4%的标普500 ETF（SPY）盘后涨幅一度超过1%；油价则从结算价附近回落，布伦特原油从逾110美元高位跌至约108美元附近交投。
然而就在数小时前，市场还在消化一系列升级信号——美国或向中东增派地面部队、评估占领伊朗哈尔克岛、伊朗官员拒绝讨论重开霍尔木兹海峡。这一日之内的急速反转，令此前大举押注油价上涨的多头猝不及防，也令美股空头措手不及。
中东地缘政治冲突持续，霍尔木兹海峡几近封闭，市场紧张情绪加剧，本周美股连续第四周下跌，创一年来最长跌势。能源供应中断担忧升温，布油本周累涨约9%，本月累涨近50%。
盘中升级信号密集，美股加速下行
周五美股盘中，中东局势持续朝更紧张方向演变，多重利空信号叠加，令市场承压加剧。
华尔街见闻文章提及，据CBS新闻报道，消息人士称，五角大楼官员已就向伊朗境内部署美国地面部队的可能性展开准备，但相关方案尚未最终确定，具体授权条件亦不明朗。
与此同时，据美国官员透露，白宫正向中东增派数百名海军陆战队员，并评估一项占领或封锁伊朗哈尔克岛的方案，以此向德黑兰施压、迫使其开放霍尔木兹海峡。哈尔克岛承担伊朗约九成石油出口，一旦相关行动落地，对全球能源供应的冲击将难以估量。
据媒体报道，伊朗官员已变得不愿就重开霍尔木兹海峡展开任何讨论，专注于在美以联合打击下求存。霍尔木兹海峡目前几近封闭，全球约20%的石油过境于此。
在上述消息驱动下，纳斯达克指数日内跌幅扩大至2%，领跌三大指数。自美伊冲突爆发以来，道琼斯指数与小盘股指数累计跌幅已接近7%。
值得注意的是，能源价格飙升引发的通胀担忧，正在迅速重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期，并成为本周金融市场另一条主要压力线。
市场当前已将2026年内美联储加息的概率定价至50%。此前以押注降息为主流的债券交易员正被迫重新制定策略，市场情绪在短时间内急速转向。
TD Securities的Gennadiy Goldberg对市场的加息判断持保留态度：
> "我们不认同市场的加息判断，油价飙升应导致美联储在滞胀压力下推迟降息，但若油价涨幅足够大，可能造成金融条件冲击，反而迫使美联储以降息应对。"
彭博宏观策略师Michael Ball则警告称，伊朗冲突引发货币政策预期的骤然重新定价，金融条件趋紧，令标普500指数面临从可控回调演变为全面修正的风险。
特朗普盘后发文，降级信号引发市场逆转
就在市场消化一整天升级信号之际，特朗普于周五盘后在"真实社交"发文，措辞出现明显转向。
据央视新闻，特朗普在帖子中列出美方已接近实现的目标，包括：彻底削弱伊朗的导弹能力、发射装置及相关设施；摧毁伊朗国防工业基础；消灭伊朗海空军力量及防空武器系统；绝不允许伊朗接近拥有核能力；以最高力度保护以色列、沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋、巴林、科威特等中东盟友。
在霍尔木兹海峡问题上，特朗普表示，该海峡的守卫与巡航工作应在必要时由其他使用该海峡的国家来承担，美国将不再承担此责任；若受邀协助，美国愿提供支持，但一旦伊朗威胁被彻底消除，此类协助便将不再必要。
部分交易员将这一盘后表态解读为对此前升级信号的逆转。SPY盘后涨幅一度超过1%，布伦特原油则从结算价上方回落至约108美元附近交投。
RBC Capital Markets分析师Helima Croft等在研报中指出，"目前没有任何迹象表明这是一场有限的交战"，德黑兰仍"有效控制着霍尔木兹海峡"，美国对哈尔克岛的打击未能改变伊朗的战略盘算。这意味着，无论特朗普的盘后表态最终如何落地，市场的不确定性远未消散。
油价本周剧烈波动，多头仓位创六年新高
能源市场本周经历了自冲突爆发以来最为剧烈的单周波动。布伦特原油周五结算价站上112美元/桶上方，为2022年中以来最高水平，本周累涨约9%，本月累涨近50%。迪拜原油期货单日暴涨16.48%。
CIBC Private Wealth高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示："原油以又一个波动剧烈、消息驱动的一周收官，交易员在周末前削减空头敞口推动价格走强。今日上涨反映了伊朗措辞的进一步强硬、霍尔木兹海峡过境流量的有限证据，以及哈尔克岛可能被纳入行动范围的未经证实报道，叠加地区军事部署的持续加强。" 资金面数据同样印证了市场的极度看多情绪。
据ICE期货欧洲每周公布的期货与期权数据，截至本周二，基金经理持有的ICE布伦特原油净多头头寸增加77,672手至428,704手，为逾六年来最强看多立场。分析指出，特朗普盘后的降级表态，令这批多头面临被突然逆转行情"打脸"的风险。 能源冲击已蔓延至更广泛市场。欧洲TTF天然气合约价格升至2023年1月以来最高水平；美国柴油均价本周再度突破每加仑5美元。
据彭博分析师Nathan Risser指出，柴油驱动从田间拖拉机到跨州货运卡车的各类核心机械，各行业将不得不提价以应对更高燃料成本，并最终传导至食品等日常消费品价格。
国际能源署数据显示，此次冲突已造成全球石油市场史上最大供应中断，迫使波斯湾周边产油国合计削减约每日1000万桶产量。据悉，沙特阿拉伯的基准情景显示，若供应中断持续至4月底，油价可能突破每桶180美元。
华 华尔街见闻 @华尔街见闻
One Sentence Summary
This article reports the violent fluctuations in financial markets under alternating signals of escalation and de-escalation in the Middle East conflict; US stocks plunged on Friday due to geopolitical tensions, then reversed after Trump suggested considering de-escalating military actions at night, while oil prices retreated but still posted weekly gains of about 9%.
Summary
This article reports the violent fluctuations in financial markets on the 21st day of the Middle East conflict in March 2026. On Friday, during trading hours, markets digested a series of escalation signals—the US might deploy additional ground forces to the Middle East, evaluate occupying Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran's refusal to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz—leading to accelerated declines in US stocks, with Nasdaq falling 2%. However, after the market close, Trump posted on social media that the US was considering gradually de-escalating military operations against Iran, prompting a swift market reversal; the S&P 500 ETF surged over 1% in after-hours trading, with oil prices retreating from over $108 to around $108. Brent crude accumulated weekly gains of about 9% and monthly gains of nearly 50%, with fund managers' net long positions hitting a six-year high. The article also analyzes the impact of surging energy prices on Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, with markets pricing in a 50% probability of rate hikes in 2026.
Main Points
* 1. Friday's market experienced a dramatic intraday reversal from escalation to de-escalation
Digesting escalation signals like troop deployments and evaluating the occupation of Kharg Island during trading hours caused US stocks to plunge, then reversed after Trump's post-market statement considering de-escalation, leaving both bulls and bears caught off guard.
* 2. Brent crude accumulated weekly gains of about 9%, monthly gains of nearly 50%
Oil prices hit their highest level since mid-2022, Dubai crude futures surged 16.48% in a single day, and fund managers' net long positions increased to the strongest bullish stance in over six years.
* 3. Surging energy prices reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations
Markets have priced in a 50% probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, with analysts divided on rate hike judgments; oil price surges may cause financial condition shocks.
* 4. Near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruption concerns
About 20% of global石油transits through here; Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's oil exports, could be included in operations; IEA data shows this conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in history.
Key Quotes
* The US is considering gradually de-escalating major military operations against the Iranian regime in the Middle East, and has stated it is very close to achieving its defined objectives. * Crude oil wrapped up another volatile, news-driven week, with traders reducing short exposure before the weekend that pushed prices higher. * We don't agree with the market's rate hike judgment; oil price surges should cause the Fed to delay rate cuts under stagflationary pressure, but if oil price increases are large enough, they could create financial condition shocks, actually forcing the Fed to respond with rate cuts. * The Iran conflict has triggered a sudden repricing of monetary policy expectations, tightening financial conditions, putting the S&P 500 at risk of evolving from a manageable pullback to a full-blown correction.
AI Score
78
Website mp.weixin.qq.com
Published At Yesterday
Length 2189 words (about 9 min)
Tags
Middle East Conflict
US Stocks
Crude Oil
Geopolitics
Trump
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