Title: 贝叶斯推理有一条原则，叫“克伦威尔法则” | BestBlogs.dev
URL Source: https://www.bestblogs.dev/article/306a6d95?amp%3Butm_medium=feed&%3Butm_campaign=resources&%3Bentry=rss_article_item
Published Time: 2026-06-18 20:29:00
Markdown Content:
Bayesian Inference Has a Principle Called "Cromwell's Rul...
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贝叶斯推理有一条原则，叫“克伦威尔法则”
This article centers on Cromwell's Rule in Bayesian inference, explaining the importance of avoiding setting prior probabilities to 100% or 0% in cognition and decision-making, emphasizing the need to maintain an open, updateable, and correctable state of mind. 孤 孤独大脑Follow·
Yesterday·977 words (about 4 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
Starting from Cromwell's Rule in Bayesian inference, the article explores the trap of absolutism in cognition. The author points out that even when people move beyond black-and-white thinking, they often fall into the pitfall of "fixed probabilities." The core warning of Cromwell's Rule is: unless something is logically certain to be true or false, do not set your prior probability to 100% or 0%, because once set as an absorbing state, new evidence can no longer change your judgment. The article further extends this principle to personal growth and decision-making, citing examples like Steve Jobs quickly changing his stance after being proven wrong, and Warren Buffett's risk management preset of "treating every driver as a potential killer." It illustrates that true conviction is not about being closed off, but about allowing oneself to be updated. It concludes with Socrates' "I know that I know nothing," emphasizing that the wise always remain in a state that can be updated.
Main Points
* 1. Cromwell's Rule requires avoiding setting prior probabilities to 0% or 100%.
Unless logically necessary, setting extreme probabilities puts cognition into an absorbing state where new evidence cannot change the judgment, thereby blocking learning and correction.
* 2. Absolute certainty is not conviction; it is closure.
Once a judgment is set at 100%, a person stops thinking and shifts to defending it, seeking evidence to support themselves rather than the truth. True conviction should allow for updating.
* 3. A vague probability estimate is better than an extreme value based on obsession.
Actively setting a vague prior probability is a conscious effort against 'preconceived notions,' and is more conducive to cognitive iteration than the 100% or 0% based on obsession.
* 4. The wise are not always right, but they always allow themselves to be updated.
Using Steve Jobs and Socrates as examples, it illustrates that true wisdom lies in maintaining an open and correctable state of mind, rather than clinging to established conclusions.
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孤独大脑 2026-06-18 20:29 北京
它的意思是：除非一件事在逻辑上必然为真，或者逻辑上必然为假，否则不要把它的先验概率设定为100%或0%。
看起来，这是个“凡事没有绝对”的书呆子版。
但现实里，我们对待某事的评判，往往用“是”或“否”，也就是将先验概率设定为100%或0%。
当我们说“是”的时候，心底默认是100%；说“不”的时候，默认是0%。
什么叫先验概率？大意是，这件事情根据过去经验判断的概率大概是多少。亦：这是基于过去的经验，且是可以被更新的。
大多数人即使跳出了非黑即白的思维，采用了概率思考，也很容易陷入“固定概率”。
所以，我们要保持自己的判断在空间（概率分布）和时间（被更新）的灵活性和可纠错性。
在贝叶斯公式中，先验概率不只是一个起点，它决定了证据能否进入你的认知系统。只要先验不是0或1，新证据就可以改变后验，改变幅度取决于证据强度。
若某个判断被设成100%或0%，就会变成认知上的“吸收态”：证据无法再改变它。
因此，克伦威尔法则警告我们的，不是“别太自信”，而是：别把自己封进不可更新的结构里。
换句话说，绝对确信不是坚定，而是关闭。
例如，乔布斯表达观点时很坚定，但如果被证明错了，他会毫不纠结地转变。
一个人一旦把自己的判断设为100%，他就不再是在思考，而是在维护。他不会寻找真相，只会寻找证据来捍卫自己。他不是拥有信念，而是被信念占有。
克伦威尔法则的精髓是：永远不要让自己的大脑进入不可更新状态。
为自己的观点设定一个先验概率，不是件容易的事情。有人会说，这太扯了，你怎么知道是50%？
的确，你只能毛估估。但模糊的估算，好过基于捣糨糊的“大概”，或是基于执念的100%和0%。
先入为主是我们最容易踩的坑。主动设置先验概率，就是对“先入”的主动思考。
巴菲特曾说：开车的秘密是，你要把街上的每个司机都当作凶手。——这个预设，可谓风险管理的精髓。
前两天刷到一篇鸡汤文，说啥叫“少年感”，就是即使经历了尔虞我诈，依然清澈。嗯，假如一个人既可以如巴菲特那样预设每个人都可能作恶，但又不因此变得世故而绝望，的确是个不错的状态。
苏格拉底说：“我唯一知道的，就是我一无所知”，这是一种高级的贝叶斯精神。
蠢人不是没有答案，而是过早锁定答案。
智者未必永远正确，但永远允许自己被更新。
PS：我有个社群，叫“孤独大脑·人生花园”，已有6500位优秀的朋友加入。
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Key Quotes
> Absolute certainty is not conviction; it is closure.
> Once a person sets their judgment at 100%, they are no longer thinking; they are defending.
> The wise are not always right, but they always allow themselves to be updated.
Tags
Mental Models
Decision Making
Bayesian Thinking
Cognitive Enhancement
Personal Growth
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