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“老登股”不被大 A 待见，孩子王转战港股 | 巴伦 IPO
This article provides an in-depth analysis of Kidswant's predicament, with its market value evaporating over 13.7 billion yuan in four years, highlighting issues such as revenue reliance on low-margin milk powder wholesale, high goodwill, and a failing membership system, while also exploring the prospects and challenges of its Hong Kong listing. B Barrons巴伦Follow·
Today·3006 words (about 13 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
Using Kidswant's board secretary share buyback and the company's name change to 'Digital Intelligence Technology' as a starting point, the article comprehensively analyzes the operational difficulties facing this maternal and infant retail leader. Financially, milk powder revenue accounts for over half but its gross margin has fallen to 16.6%, with growth dependent on low-margin wholesale. Continuous acquisitions have pushed goodwill to 1.932 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio has reached 62.7%. Despite digital investments exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, a scandal involving formaldehyde in diapers has eroded consumer trust, and the activity of Black Gold members is declining. The cross-industry acquisition of Siyu Hair Care offers high-margin potential but poses significant integration challenges. In the industry, the birth rate continues to decline, the market is fragmented, and price wars are common. Institutional shareholders have sold off at high prices, and a Hong Kong listing will face stricter scrutiny of cash flow. The article concludes that whether Kidswant can find new growth drivers beyond selling goods and generate cross-category consumption value from its nearly 100 million members will be key to long-term trust.
Main Points
* 1. Kidswant's revenue growth relies on low-margin milk powder wholesale, raising concerns about earnings quality.
In 2025, milk powder revenue accounted for over half of total revenue, but the average selling price dropped by 30%, with a gross margin of only 16.6%, the lowest among all business segments. New store openings are primarily franchised, further compressing margins.
* 2. Consecutive acquisitions have led to high goodwill, significantly increasing financial leverage risk.
After acquiring Leyou International, Siyu Biotechnology, and others, goodwill surged from 782 million yuan to 1.932 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of net assets. The asset-liability ratio rose to 62.7%, narrowing the financial safety margin.
* 3. The membership system is complex but lacks substantive value, leading to a loss of user trust.
Both the number of active Black Gold members and their revenue have declined. Consumers report opaque rebate rules and forced app registration, failing to provide clear cost-effectiveness or a sense of exclusivity for different user tiers.
* 4. Industry downturn and institutional exits have left the capital market with limited patience.
The declining birth rate has slowed growth in the maternal and infant market, which remains highly fragmented. Institutions like Hillhouse Capital have reduced holdings at high prices, reflecting expectations of a growth ceiling.
* 5. The Hong Kong listing is a short-term strategy to ease financial pressure, but long-term transformation remains unproven.
The company has refiled for a Hong Kong IPO, with proceeds intended for R&D, AI, and overseas expansion. However, Hong Kong investors prioritize cash flow and dividends, and the synergies from the cross-border hair care business have yet to be confirmed, limiting the room for storytelling.
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原创 孙骋 2026-07-03 13:54 上海
巴伦要点：上市四年市值蒸发139亿，母婴第一股孩子王还能讲出新故事吗？
上市四年市值蒸发139亿，母婴第一股孩子王还能讲出新故事吗？
作者｜**孙骋** 编辑｜刘洋雪
2026年6月25日，孩子王（301078.SZ）执行董事、副总经理兼董事会秘书侍光磊用283.6万元增持了40万股公司股票。这已不是他第一次出手，累计增持耗资已达662.78万元，相当于其个人六年多的薪酬总和。管理层掏出真金白银，通常被解读为对公司的“信心投票”。
就在同一天，孩子王正式更名为“孩子王数智科技股份有限公司”，试图以“数智科技”的新标签重塑市场认知。更名两天前，公司向港交所再次递交招股书，若成功登陆港股，孩子王将成为“母婴零售第一股”中率先搭建“A+H”双上市平台的公司。
一边是董秘“抄底”，一边是机构与散户仍在观望。wind数据显示：截至2026年7月1日下午收盘，孩子王（301078.SZ）股价报收于6.89元，当日最高触及6.94元，收盘市值约为87.13亿元。相较于2025年3月创下的17.75元历史高点，当前股价已大幅回撤61.18%。按公司约12.65亿股的总股本计算，其市值已从高点时的约224.47亿元缩水至当前的87.13亿元，累计蒸发约137.34亿元。
其估值从高位向合理区间的回归，也折射出母婴零售行业在出生率波动及渠道变革下面临的结构性挑战，市场情绪与基本面预期的双重压制导致市值大幅缩水。
百亿营收的B面：奶粉降价、商誉高悬
单看营收，孩子王2025年全年营收102.73亿元，归母净利润2.98亿元。按GMV计，其以137亿元位列母婴童市场第一。
但细拆结构，问题不少。
奶粉是孩子王的绝对支柱，贡献了过半收入。2025年配方奶粉收入53.37亿元，同比增长5.3%，增速低于整体营收的10%。更值得关注的是，奶粉销量虽大幅攀升至3199.5万件，平均售价却从239元骤降至167元，跌幅达30%。公司解释称，新增的一千多万件销量主要来自面向加盟商和分销商的批发业务，毛利本就低于终端零售。结果是，奶粉毛利率在2025年跌至16.6%，在各细分板块中垫底。
这其实暴露了一个尴尬现实：门店越开越多，但增长越来越依赖低毛利的批发走量。截至2025年底，孩子王拥有3821家线下门店，较前一年大幅扩张，其中加盟门店从9家激增至173家，增速惊人。可加盟模式天然拉低单价和毛利，这笔账算不算得过来，还有待时间检验。
更大的隐患藏在资产负债表里。连续收购乐友国际、丝域生物、幸研生物之后，公司商誉从2024年末的7.82亿元飙升至19.32亿元，占净资产比重逼近50%，资产负债率同步攀升至62.7%。孩子王用杠杆撑起了规模，但也把自己推到了财务安全的悬崖边上。
激进出击数字化，消费者信任却在流失
抛开冰冷的财务数字，这家公司的内在气质其实相当矛盾：它既有深耕多年的技术底子，又在产品与会员经营上频频“翻车”，同时还怀揣着一股逆势扩张的赌性。
技术投入是孩子王最拿得出手的标签。截至2025年末，公司累计投入超12亿元用于数字化建设，建立了1500多个用户标签和700多个智能模型，试图实现从“人找货”到“货找人”的转变。2025年线上商品销售收入35.84亿元，占商品销售收入的40.2%，其中自建平台贡献了30.24亿元。这套体系在母婴零售圈里确实算能打。也正是靠这个底子，公司近日更名为“孩子王数智科技股份有限公司”，也向市场传递了一个信号：不想只卖奶粉。
跨界收购丝域养发，则是另一张牌。头皮护理赛道毛利率高达67.2%，是母婴主业的三倍有余。丝域按2025年GMV计在该赛道排名第一，市占率3.3%。理想状态下，孩子王手中9800万会员可以向养发业务导流，实现“从婴儿到成人”的生命周期价值挖掘。但丝域以加盟模式为主，门店超过2600家，管理半径极大，整合难度不容低估。
然而，再好的战略布局，也经不起消费者端的信任流失。近期爆发的“纸尿裤甲酰胺风波”就是一记重锤。此前媒体报道“好奇”“Babycare”等品牌婴幼儿纸尿裤检出甲酰胺，孩子王正是这些品牌的主要销售渠道。事件曝光后，公司称线上客服密集接收到四五千条咨询，股价累计跌幅逼近8%。对于母婴行业，安全就是命门，一旦消费者心里埋下疑虑的种子，修复成本极高。
会员体系也在悄然褪色。曾被寄予厚望的黑金会员，活跃人数从1263万下滑至1151.6万，会员收入从92.4亿元缩水至78.8亿元。在小红书上搜索“孩子王黑金会员”，关联热词是“返现”和“退卡”。一些消费者反映，69元的年费是“算出来的”：199元减50元无门槛券、50元生日券、3次游园卡，实际支付69元，听着划算，但返现和优惠仅限部分商品，比价之后并不便宜。规则复杂又不透明，不仅没能拴住用户，反而把人往外推。更有门店强制要求注册会员或下载App才能结账，体验雪上加霜。
近亿会员的规模之下，孩子王似乎始终没有想明白，会员体系的本质，要么给追求性价比的用户实在的折扣，要么给高净值用户圈层感和尊享感，两头都不沾，光靠算账留不住人。
行业天花板下移，资本市场的耐心正在消耗
孩子王的焦虑，根源在于母婴这个赛道本身正在收窄。中国出生率从2020年的8.52‰降至2025年的约5.63‰，母婴童产品市场2020年至2025年复合年增长率仅2.3%，预计未来四年将进一步放缓至2.2%。行业前五名参与者合计市占率仅约1.0%，极度分散意味着定价权薄弱，价格战是常态。
同品类中，爱婴室常被拿来对比。两者面临同样的出生率压力，但路径不一样：爱婴室偏稳健，区域深耕；孩子王偏进攻，靠并购扩张。体量上孩子王占优，但商誉和负债压力也远高于同业。资本市场的态度或许更能说明问题：高瓴系等机构股东在孩子王股价高位时密集减持，持股比例从11.24%降至4.04%。早期投资者的离场，某种程度上是对成长天花板的一种预判。
董秘的“信心”与市场的“耐心”
董秘侍光磊的增持是真金白银的表态，但孩子王面前有几道实实在在的坎：纸尿裤风波的声誉修复、近20亿商誉的减值风险，以及跨界养发和美妆能否产生实质协同，而非停留在并表层面。更名“数智科技”容易，真正做出科技含量是另一回事。
赴港上市是另一场大考。去年12月首次递表失效后，公司于今年6月23日再次递交招股书，根据招股书，此次募资将用于母婴和头发护理产品研发创新、AI伴身智能产品矩阵建设、门店和营销网络扩张，以及战略并购和投资。公司明确将国际化作为重点方向，尤其看好东南亚市场的人口结构和消费潜力。但招股书也坦言，母婴市场的萎缩趋势短期内难以逆转，而跨界收购带来的商誉和负债压力已在账面上清晰显现。
赴港上市若成行，至少能缓解阶段性资金压力，为转型争取时间。但港股投资者比A股更看重现金流和分红，讲故事的空间有限。孩子王能否在卖货之外找到新的利润增长点，能否让9800万会员真正产生跨品类消费价值，才是赢得长期信任的关键。 版权声明： 本文为Barron's巴伦中文网原创文章。未经许可，不得转载。**（本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何形式的投资和金融建议；市场有风险，投资须谨慎 。） * **重磅活动：** 2026巴伦中国价值榜单评选（2026 Barron's China Value List）已全面启动，诚邀各类优质企业、商业领袖与专业资管机构共赴价值之约，携手向全球展现中国资产的硬核实力与长期发展潜力，凝聚中国价值的全球共识。 !Image 4
上海
阅读原文Key Quotes
> When management puts their own money on the line, it is usually interpreted as a 'vote of confidence' in the company.
> The essence of a membership system is either to offer tangible discounts for cost-conscious users or to provide a sense of community and exclusivity for high-net-worth individuals. If it fails to do either, relying solely on calculations won't retain members.
> If the Hong Kong listing goes through, it could at least alleviate short-term funding pressures and buy time for transformation. However, Hong Kong investors are more focused on cash flow and dividends than their A-share counterparts, leaving limited room for storytelling.
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Maternal & Infant Retail
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