Title: 牛市中后期市场风格轮动极端，我们该怎么办？｜投资小知识 | BestBlogs.dev
URL Source: https://www.bestblogs.dev/article/e3198864?amp%3Butm_medium=feed&%3Butm_campaign=resources&%3Bentry=rss_article_item
Published Time: 2026-07-04 21:16:00
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牛市中后期市场风格轮动极端，我们该怎么办？｜投资小知识
This article analyzes the reasons behind extreme global market style rotation in 2026 (AI growth style siphoning effect + liquidity tightening), and provides coping strategies: don't chase rallies, don't use leverage, take profits in batches, and wait for undervaluation. 银 银行螺丝钉Follow·
Yesterday·1302 words (about 6 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article uses the 2026 global stock market style rotation as background, explaining the siphoning effect of growth style (AI industry chain) on value style in the late-stage bull market, comparing it with the extreme divergence between the STAR Market and Hong Kong stocks in 2021. It points out current risks: the contradiction between global liquidity tightening and AI crowded trades (margin financing nearly 3 trillion, individual stock leveraged ETFs hitting new highs). Once a stampede occurs, it could trigger significant risks. The author proposes three coping strategies based on valuation cycles: use interest rate and exchange rate cycles for buy-low-sell-high; don't chase overvalued assets, don't use leverage, take profits in batches; dollar-cost average into undervalued assets; prepare psychologically for volatility. Emphasizes patience and discipline, believing investment is a game where capital transfers from the impatient to the patient. Risk warnings and course promotion are attached at the end.
Main Points
* 1. Style rotation in mid-to-late bull markets stems from capital siphoning effects.
After growth style surges, it requires even more capital to sustain, draining funds from value style and causing extreme divergence. The 2021 divergence between the STAR Market and Hong Kong stocks is a typical example.
* 2. Current global liquidity tightening contradicts elevated AI crowded trades.
AI rallies consume increasing capital, but global liquidity is slowly tightening. Margin financing has reached historic highs (approximately 3 trillion in A-shares), and leveraged funds crowding into individual stocks increase stampede risk.
* 3. The coping strategy is to return to valuation cycles and maintain disciplined execution.
Don't chase overvalued assets, don't use leverage, take profits in batches; persist in dollar-cost averaging into undervalued assets; use interest rate and exchange rate cycles for buy-low-sell-high, and prepare mentally for volatility.
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银行螺丝钉 2026-07-04 21:16 四川
!Image 2 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处）
#螺丝钉小知识
银行螺丝钉
牛市中后期市场风格轮动极端，我们该怎么办？
2026年全球股票市场，都出现了比较极端的风格轮动。
通常到了牛市的中后期，成长风格在已经大涨的基础上，继续往上走，需要的资金越来越多。想要推动已经大涨的成长风格继续上涨，会对其他风格产生虹吸。这就是牛市中后期风格轮动的原因。
2021年牛市中后期也出现过。当时科创板一年多上涨了约80%，资金疯狂涌向成长，同期红利却跌了十多个点。到了2022到2024年，科创板从高点腰斩，红利反而连续3年上涨，2024年创下历史新高。
2026年以来，全球范围，资金流动性是慢慢收紧的。
股票资产中，AI产业链一枝独秀，2026年大涨，对A股、美股产生了支撑。让A股中证800等宽基、以及美股指数，在2026年5月创下历史新高。
不过，潜在的隐患，就是全球流动性在慢慢收紧。钱，没那么多了。
「AI上涨需要的钱越来越多」和「全球流动性收紧」形成了矛盾。
AI等成长风格想继续大涨，就得从其他风格、其他资产抽血。但资金已经在AI上抱团率创下历史之最，其中不少是杠杆资金。
例如2026年A股的融资规模，接近3万亿，创下历史新高；例如海外的「个股杠杆型ETF」的规模创下历史新高。后续如果出现踩踏，可能会对成长风格产生较大的风险。
这是目前全球资本市场，共同的一个隐患。
咱们怎么去应对呢？其实做的事情还是不变：跌出机会就买入，涨出机会就卖出，其他时间耐心等待。
（1）利率汇率也是周期波动的。
利率汇率大幅提升，往往会带来低估买入的机会。例如2021-2023年，美元利率汇率大幅提升，全球股票市场、黄金，都出现了低估机会。
利率汇率下降，则往往带来高估止盈的机会。2024-2025年美元利率汇率大幅下降。全球股票、黄金等资产大幅上涨，很多资产进入高估。
2026年又有利率汇率短期上升的迹象。不过利率汇率有升就有降，我们要做的，是利用好这种周期，所带来的低买高卖的机会。
（2）对2026年已经高估的资产，不要追涨，不要上杠杆，做好分批止盈。
对进入低估的资产，不着急重仓，做好定投计划。
后续高估资产如果大跌的时候，短期里会对低估资产也会产生冲击。做好定投计划，更容易坚持下来。
（3）做好面对波动的心理准备。
每次牛市中后期，都是剧烈波动的。这个过程中，保持好心态。用估值数据等帮助做好决策。
一些杠杆投资者也会出现爆仓、出现非常便宜的「带血的筹码」。届时，就是有耐心的投资者，加仓的好机会。
投资，是一个资金从「没有耐心者」，向「有耐心者」转移的游戏。
风险提示
本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。
基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证。
基金投资组合策略具有市场风险、信用风险、流动性风险、法律风险以及其他投资风险等，其风险特征与单只基金产品的特征存在差异，可能存在基金投资组合策略成分基金风险等级高于基金投资组合策略风险等级的情况。
基金投资顾问业务尚处于试点阶段，存在因试点资格被取消不能继续提供服务的风险。 ▼点击阅读原文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 阅读原文
Key Quotes
> Buy when prices drop to opportunity levels, sell when prices rise to opportunity levels, and wait patiently the rest of the time.
> Investing is a game where capital transfers from those who lack patience to those who possess it.
Tags
Investment & Markets
Macroeconomics
Market Cycles
Risk Management
Style Rotation
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