Title: 转债新券翻倍行情频频上演 机构提示高溢价暗藏风险 | BestBlogs.dev
URL Source: https://www.bestblogs.dev/article/506b5a5b?amp%3Butm_medium=feed&%3Butm_campaign=resources&%3Bentry=rss_article_item
Published Time: 2026-07-06 15:53:00
Markdown Content: Skip to main contentAudio 2 
Search Ctrl+K
Change language Switch ThemeSign In
[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/brief "Daily Brief")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/newsletter "Weekly Picks")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/topics "Topics")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/worldcup "World Cup Special")
[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/settings "Settings")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/docs "Help Center")
Narrow Mode
80
转债新券翻倍行情频频上演 机构提示高溢价暗藏风险
This article reports on the frequent doubling of newly issued convertible bonds after listing recently, with many seeing conversion premiums exceed 300%, citing views from multiple institutions to analyze the causes and potential risks of such high premiums. 证 证券时报Follow·
Today·1714 words (about 7 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article cites recent listings such as Shengde Convertible Bond, Tonghe Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond to illustrate market trends where new issues hit the limit up (57.30%) on their debut and then double within days. Notably, Shengde Convertible Bond surged over 200% upon listing, yielding a profit of over 2,000 yuan per lot. Zhang Jiqiang of Huatai Securities analyzes that the structural performance of the equity market (strength in sectors like AI computing power and semiconductors) serves as the underlying foundation. Combined with scarce convertible bond supply, shrinking inventory due to forced redemptions/maturities, and passive allocation by ETFs, these factors have jointly driven up the pricing of new issues. Sun Binbin of Caitong Securities points out that the premium spread between new and existing bonds has expanded to its widest level in two years. Both institutions highlight risks: high premiums rely on rising underlying stocks to be digested; once underlying stocks weaken, the bonds may face a catch-up decline. The article also mentions that the 6-month lock-up period restricts the actual circulating float, and premiums face compression pressure after the lock-up ends, making the 3-6 month window post-listing a critical observation period.
Main Points
* 1. New issues double frequently after listing, and conversion premiums rise to extreme levels.
Shengde Convertible Bond and Tonghe Convertible Bond rose over 200% after listing, with conversion premiums exceeding 300%, showing pricing clearly decoupled from underlying stock trends.
* 2. Causes of high premiums: Triple overlay of structural equity market, supply-demand imbalance, and passive allocation.
The trend rise in underlying stocks in sectors like AI/Semiconductors provides the foundation; new issue supply is scarce while demand is rigid; ETF rebalancing and passive buying further boost prices.
* 3. Core risk: High premiums rely on underlying stock rises to digest; stock weakness will trigger a catch-up decline.
If underlying stock trends turn weak, high premiums lose their digestion path and can only be passively repaired through a decline in the convertible bond price; the expansion of the circulating float after the lock-up period will also compress premiums.
* 4. The 3 to 6 months post-listing is the key window for valuation regression.
After the 6-month lock-up period ends, the portion subscribed by major shareholders can be sold, expanding the circulating float and compressing premiums; premiums may weaken in advance if underlying stocks fluctuate weakly.
Sign in to highlight text and take notes as you read. Sign in now
王军 2026-07-06 15:53 广东
近期可转债市场新券热度持续爆棚，新上市的转债上市首日普遍顶格收盘，随后继续冲高，中签投资者持有不久收益翻倍的案例频出。
在转债新券接连大涨的情况下，多家券商机构警示，当前次新券溢价率处于近年来的极值区间，市场给予可转债的估值明显偏高，一旦正股行情走弱，高溢价存在快速回落风险。
多只转债新券上市后翻倍
今年6月以来，盛德转债、通合转债、中汽转债、迪威转债、三江转债等多只可转债上市，上述转债上市首日均以57.30%的涨幅顶格收盘，随后持续拉升走高，盛德转债、通合转债、中汽转债等上市短短数日便走出翻倍行情。
其中，盛德转债的表现最为强势，在正股盛德鑫泰整体保持震荡走势的背景下，盛德转债的价格接连冲高，7月6日盘中价格超过300元/张，上市以来的涨幅超200%。这意味着，中签投资者上市后持续持有的情况下，单签收益已超过2000元。通合转债、中汽转债等也曾上涨突破200元/张，中签投资者上市后持续持有的情况下，单签收益也在1000元以上。
不过，在正股价格波动幅度有限的背景下，转债价格持续上行，直接推动转股溢价率长期维持在高位区间。行情数据显示，盛德转债目前的转股溢价率超过300%，三江转债的转股溢价率也在100%以上。两只转债均处于超常规水平的溢价状态。
对于转债新券定价持续处于高位的原因，华泰证券研究所所长张继强指出，权益市场的结构性行情走强，是支撑转债新券上市后表现偏强的底层基础。当前AI算力、半导体、PCB等赛道的正股趋势性行情明确，市场资金对相关方向的转债新券普遍愿意给出更高溢价。只要结构性行情的市场预期得以延续，这类新上市的转债筹码就会持续获得较高的资金关注度。
同时他也提示，这一高溢价行情的持续性，最终仍取决于对应正股的业绩能否落地兑现。一旦正股后续走势转弱，转债新券当前高定价的核心支撑将出现明显松动。
转债市场供求失衡进一步推升定价。今年新增供给并不充裕，存量估值处于高位，强赎与到期退出仍在持续压缩存量规模，供给偏少、需求刚性，新券上市自然更容易获得高定价。
此外，ETF占比提升，被动配置也助推了新券价格。根据指数调仓规则，新券通常在上市次月首个交易日被纳入中证转债及可交债指数，上证投资级转债指数则每两周调整一次。
机构提示高溢价风险
新券上市后的高溢价，绝大部分通过正股上涨来消化，而非依赖转债价格自身回落。这也意味着，若当正股价格偏高同时转债的转股溢价率也偏高，转债的调整风险更大。
对于当前转债新券的定价，张继强直言，“在供求失衡格局下，市场对新券的定价已明显脱离理性区间。6月这一特征愈发突出，市场几乎忽略正股波动、正股资质和转债平价，流通盘有限的新券开盘即顶格上涨。”
财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬也指出，次新券系统性地贵于存量券，且这一溢价差已扩张至两年最阔水平。新券溢价率不降反升，打新热情、稀缺性定价、机构配置需求使新券持续被买入。
“对次新券而言，贵并非主要矛盾，担忧在正股能否兑现——一旦正股走弱，此前靠转债自身上涨堆积的高溢价将失去消化路径，只能通过转债价格补跌来被动修复。” 孙彬彬表示，上市2个月后的次新券的溢价率仍高但开始向存量券收敛，此时若溢价率仍显著高于同存量券且正股未见明显催化，或可认为偏贵。
新券后续价格变化还会受到相关条款和配置资金影响。正股强弱决定了转债的方向，流动性则决定了估值是否会坍塌。2025年至今的高定价中，正股预期与供求失衡因素交织。
值得一提的是，上述翻倍转债出现的背后，有个共同推动因素，即上市后的流通盘较小，少量买盘即可推升价格。上市后若正股价格表现不振，溢价率也将随之压缩。
张继强表示，2022年以来，新券设有6个月锁定期，大股东配售部分在锁定期内不能卖出，上市初期实际流通盘受限，溢价率更容易维持在高位。但锁定期结束后流通盘明显扩大，溢价率往往会出现明显压缩。因此，新券上市后3至6个月是关键观察窗口，若正股走势震荡偏弱，锁定期前后溢价可能提前走弱。 责编：叶 舒 筠 校对：赵燕
**!Image 8**
**证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。** **转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes**
**!Image 10: 图片**Key Quotes
> Under the pattern of supply-demand imbalance, the market's pricing of new issues has clearly deviated from the rational range.
> For near-new bonds, being expensive is not the main contradiction; the concern lies in whether the underlying stocks can deliver—once underlying stocks weaken, the high premiums previously accumulated through the bond's own rise will lose their digestion path and can only be passively repaired through a catch-up decline in the bond price.
Tags
Convertible Bonds
Investment & Markets
A-Shares
Investment Strategy
Risk Warning
Related Articles
* Everyone Is Paying for the $700 Billion Bill * 30 Million Invested, 530 Million Book Return! A Dialogue with Zhang Sheng, President of Heaven Silicon Valley: Proactively Dismantling Diversification, Returning to Focus on Hard Tech | Inquiring · Crest of the Wave * "The Biggest IPO in Human History": Is SpaceX More Than Just Rockets? * Investing in Moore Threads, MetaX, CXMT, and LandSpace! Qianhai Ark's Jin Haitao: No Investment Philosophy, Just Four Hard Moves | Quest for the Peak * The "Everyone's a Lobster Farmer" Craze Fades! Lobsters "Cool Off", But Agents Are Hotter Than Ever agent framework as a starting point, this article analyzes the shift of the agent track from conceptual frenzy to rational implementation, exploring core pain points such as system fragmentation, data security, and permission control in enterprise scenarios, and proposes a development path where \"usability\" and \"controllability\" must go hand in hand.") * Masayoshi Son and Sam Altman: Why Are They Setting 'Sky-High' Prices for AI? * Generative AI: No Fourth Bubble? * SpaceX Rings the Bell, Musk Becomes Humanity's First 'Trillion-Dollar Man', 400 Employees Become Billionaires * AI-Powered Alipay Has Arrived | Financial Perspective * Investigation into Chaos in Hong Kong IPO Prospectuses
Make your daily reading actually fit you.A daily brief built from the sources you follow. Get started free HomeDiscoverWorld CupSettings