Search Ctrl+K

Change language Switch ThemeSign In

[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/brief "Daily Brief")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/newsletter "Weekly Picks")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/explore/topics "Topics")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/worldcup "World Cup Special")

[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/settings "Settings")[](https://www.bestblogs.dev/en/docs "Help Center")

Narrow Mode

80

超强厄尔尼诺事件，要来了

The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center predicts a super strong El Niño event will form in the autumn and winter of 2026, potentially breaking historical extremes and significantly affecting China's typhoons, climate, and marine ecology. 央 央视网Follow·

Yesterday·992 words (about 4 min)

·View Source →

AI Summary & Key Points

Summary

Based on the latest monitoring data from China's Ministry of Natural Resources National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, the article reports that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have persistently warmed anomalously since spring 2026, with a super strong El Niño expected to develop in the upcoming autumn and winter, possibly surpassing the historical extreme of the 1997/1998 event. It cites specific sea temperature indices (April 0.47℃, May 0.94℃, June 1.55℃) to illustrate the warming trend and explains the ocean‑atmosphere coupling mechanism of warm water moving eastward and strengthened westerlies. The article then forecasts impacts on China: typhoons will be fewer but stronger; summer‑autumn precipitation will be above average in the north and Jiangnan, below average in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; winter will show a warm‑winter pattern; sea temperatures in the Bohai and Yellow Seas will be above average, with notable marine heatwaves; and it highlights a heightened risk of extreme flooding in the Yangtze River basin in summer 2027. The tone is warning‑oriented, urging early disaster‑prevention deployment.

Main Points

* 1. A super strong El Niño event is expected to form in the autumn and winter of 2026, with the likelihood of breaking historical extremes continuing to increase.

Based on ocean‑atmosphere coupled model forecasts, the key region's sea surface temperature index is projected to reach 2℃-3℃, potentially surpassing the 1997/1998 event, with current same‑period data already exceeding historical extreme levels.

* 2. El Niño will have significant impacts on China's typhoons, precipitation, and marine ecology.

Typhoon formation will be less frequent but stronger; northern and Jiangnan regions will see above‑average precipitation in summer and autumn, while the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will be below average; winter will exhibit a warm‑winter pattern; elevated sea temperatures in the Bohai and Yellow Seas may threaten marine aquaculture and coral reefs.

* 3. The year following the El Niño (2027) sees a high risk of extreme flooding in the Yangtze River basin.

The significant superimposed climate anomaly in the following year leads to abnormally high precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, creating severe flood control pressure that requires advance deployment of defenses.

Sign in to highlight text and take notes as you read. Sign in now

央视网 2026-07-13 17:52 北京

!Image 4

!Image 5: 图片

记者近日从中国自然资源部获悉，最新监测显示，厄尔尼诺现象进入快速发展阶段。国家海洋环境预报中心综合研判，今年秋冬季将形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件，刷新历史极值的可能性持续增大。该中心专家分析了该事件将对中国气候带来的影响。

2026年春季以来赤道中东太平洋海温持续异常增暖。国家海洋环境预报中心综合海洋监测、大气环流及多模式预测结果研判，今年秋冬季将形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件，不排除赶超1997/1998年史上超强厄尔尼诺的可能，各类气候及海洋灾害风险需提前防范。

据分析，本次厄尔尼诺增暖特征典型，今年春季增暖率先在赤道东太平洋秘鲁沿岸海域出现，逐步向西扩展。表层升温前，赤道西太平洋次表层已蓄积大量暖海水，持续东移抬升，为事件发展奠定基础。监测数据显示，4月、5月和6月赤道中东太平洋海温关键区海温指数分别为0.47℃、0.94℃和1.55℃。5月已正式进入厄尔尼诺状态，近期增暖速率显著加快。

该预报中心表示，同期对比来看，当前赤道中东太平洋表层海温异常强度已超越1997/1998年超强事件同期水平。5月下旬起，赤道西太平洋西风持续加强东传，大气对流东移至中太平洋并显著增强，海气双向耦合、协同发展，助力厄尔尼诺持续走强。目前，国内外动力、统计及人工智能模式预测结论高度一致，预计今年秋冬季海温关键区海温指数可达2℃-3℃，达到强至超强厄尔尼诺标准，刷新历史极值的可能性持续增大。

该预报中心专家表示，本次厄尔尼诺将对中国气候、海洋生态和防灾减灾产生显著持续性影响。台风方面，西北太平洋及南海台风生成数量偏少，但源地偏东偏南、强度更强，需重点防范强台风引发的灾害性海浪、风暴潮及海水倒灌灾害。

气候方面，今年夏秋季中国华北、东北及江南地区降水偏多，长江中游降水偏少，冬季整体呈现暖冬特征。海洋领域，渤海、黄海、东海北部海温偏高，局部海洋热浪风险突出，将威胁海水养殖安全，加剧珊瑚礁白化问题。

国家海洋环境预报中心表示，值得高度警惕的是，厄尔尼诺次年气候影响更为显著。预计2027年夏季长江流域降水异常偏多，极端洪涝灾害风险较高，防汛压力严峻。各地需提前部署防汛备汛、海洋生态监测、灾害防御等工作，全力防范各类次生灾害。

!Image 6: 图片

# **!Image 7: 图片

****!Image 10: 图片

!Image 16: 图片 !Image 17: 图片 **# # 主 编丨 单镜宇 编 辑丨 陈艳欣 审 校丨 雅虹 来 源丨 中国新闻社

Key Quotes

> This autumn and winter will see the formation of a super strong El Niño event, with the likelihood of breaking historical extremes continuing to increase.

> It is expected that in the summer of 2027, precipitation in the Yangtze River basin will be abnormally above average, posing a high risk of extreme flooding and severe flood control pressure.

Tags

El Niño

Weather and Climate

Natural Disasters

Environment and Climate

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

Related Articles

* Prices Soaring, Global Scramble: Why Copper Has Become a Hot Commodity * Eye Drops Ordered Online, Scanned to Find 'Underarm Odor Remover'? * The 5,980 Yuan "Gold Medal College Admission Consultant": Identity is Fake, Certificate is Photoshopped, Free AI Services Resold at High Prices * Gout No Longer Misnamed as "Inflammation" * Soybean Prices Surge Across the Seas? How Is This 'Cost Wave' Being 'Absorbed'?

Make your daily reading actually fit you.A daily brief built from the sources you follow. Get started free HomeDiscoverWorld CupSettings