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超强厄尔尼诺事件，要来了
The article notes that, driven by sustained warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, a super strong El Niño event is expected this autumn and winter, possibly surpassing the historical extreme of 1997/1998, and it details the impacts on China's climate, oceans, and disaster prevention and mitigation. 
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人民日报 2026-07-13 22:08 北京
国家海洋环境预报中心综合海洋监测、大气环流及多模式预测结果研判，今年秋冬季将形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件，不排除赶超1997/1998年史上超强厄尔尼诺的可能，各类气候及海洋灾害风险需提前防范。
据分析，本次厄尔尼诺增暖特征典型，今年春季增暖率先在赤道东太平洋秘鲁沿岸海域出现，逐步向西扩展。表层升温前，赤道西太平洋次表层已蓄积大量暖海水，持续东移抬升，为事件发展奠定基础。监测数据显示，4月、5月和6月赤道中东太平洋海温关键区海温指数分别为0.47℃、0.94℃和1.55℃。5月已正式进入厄尔尼诺状态，近期增暖速率显著加快。
该预报中心表示，同期对比来看，当前赤道中东太平洋表层海温异常强度已超越1997/1998年超强事件同期水平。5月下旬起，赤道西太平洋西风持续加强东传，大气对流东移至中太平洋并显著增强，海气双向耦合、协同发展，助力厄尔尼诺持续走强。
本次厄尔尼诺将对我国气候等
产生显著持续性影响
目前，国内外动力、统计及人工智能模式预测结论高度一致，预计今年秋冬季海温关键区海温指数可达2℃-3℃，达到强至超强厄尔尼诺标准，刷新历史极值的可能性持续增大。
国家海洋环境预报中心 专家表示，本次厄尔尼诺将对中国气候、海洋生态和防灾减灾产生显著持续性影响。台风方面，西北太平洋及南海台风生成数量偏少，但源地偏东偏南、强度更强，需重点防范强台风引发的灾害性海浪、风暴潮及海水倒灌灾害。
资料图
气候方面，今年夏秋季中国华北、东北及江南地区降水偏多，长江中游降水偏少，冬季整体呈现暖冬特征。海洋领域，渤海、黄海、东海北部海温偏高，局部海洋热浪风险突出，将威胁海水养殖安全，加剧珊瑚礁白化问题。
值得高度警惕的是，厄尔尼诺次年气候影响更为显著。预计2027年夏季长江流域降水异常偏多，极端洪涝灾害风险较高，防汛压力严峻。各地需提前部署防汛备汛、海洋生态监测、灾害防御等工作，全力防范各类次生灾害。 什么是厄尔尼诺？
正常情况下，赤道西太平洋是大片的暖水区，而东太平洋是一片冷水区。但在一些年份，这些情况会发生变化。
* 厄尔尼诺是赤道中东太平洋海温持续偏高并造成大气环流异常的一种气候现象。
* 拉尼娜也称为“反厄尔尼诺”，是赤道中东太平洋海表温度大范围持续异常偏冷的现象。
（a）正常状态
（b）厄尔尼诺
（c）拉尼娜 *
来源：人民日报微信综合中国新闻社、央视新闻、自然资源部
本期编辑：方梓祎、王若彤
Key Quotes
> This autumn and winter will see a super strong El Niño event, and it is not ruled out that it could surpass the historically super strong El Niño of 1997/1998.
> El Niño conditions were officially reached in May, and the warming rate has recently accelerated significantly.
> This El Niño will have significant and lasting impacts on China’s climate, marine ecology, and disaster prevention and mitigation.
> It is especially noteworthy that the climatic impacts of El Niño in the following year are more pronounced; it is forecast that precipitation in the Yangtze River basin in summer 2027 will be anomalously high, with elevated extreme flood disaster risk.
> Regarding typhoons, formation numbers in the northwestern Pacific and South China Sea will be lower, but origins will shift eastward and southward and intensities will be stronger; therefore, priority should be given to preventing disaster‑causing waves, storm surges, and seawater intrusion from strong typhoons.
Tags
Climate Change
El Niño
Weather Hazards
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Marine Environment
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