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为什么美国热泵市场依然火热？
Although the federal tax credit has been canceled, US heat pump sales continue to grow, showing that the market now has independent growth momentum. Follow·
Today·1456 words (about 6 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article points out that although the federal $2,000 tax credit for heat pumps ended at the end of 2025, heat pump sales not only did not decline, but were 32% higher than gas furnaces in the first quarter of 2026 and continued to grow. The article explains how heat pumps work, their cost advantages, and their role in building decarbonization, and cites analysis by Lucas Davis, an energy economist at UC Berkeley, arguing that the heat pump market has become sufficiently mature to no longer rely on policy stimulus. The article also compares heat pump performance after the cancellation of EV tax credits, noting that heat pump growth follows a seasonal pattern with larger increases, concluding that the heat pump era continues.
Main Points
* 1. Heat pump sales continued to grow after the policy was canceled, showing strong intrinsic market momentum.
The article cites AHRI data showing that heat pump shipments in Q1 2026 were flat then steadily rose, with growth even exceeding the same period in previous years, indicating that demand does not depend on the tax credit.
* 2. Heat pumps offer high energy efficiency and dual functionality (heating+cooling), have low long-term operating costs, and are a key technology for building decarbonization.
The article explains how heat pumps work and their high energy utilization efficiency, with operating costs lower than those of traditional equipment such as gas furnaces, and without directly burning fossil fuels, helping to reduce building carbon emissions.
* 3. Compared with the market performance after the cancellation of EV tax credits, heat pump growth is more resilient.
The author notes that electric vehicles saw a pre‑expiry buying rush followed by a sharp sales drop, whereas heat pump sales did not fall after the policy ended but continued to rise, indicating a stronger market foundation.
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原创 C.Crownhart 2026-07-17 19:15 北京
尽管一项关键的税收补贴已经取消，美国的热泵销量仍然保持强势增长。
!Image 8: 技术人员正在砖房旁安装热泵。!Image 9!Image 10!Image 11!Image 12!Image 13!Image 14!Image 15!Image 16!Image 17（来源：麻省理工科技评论）
!Image 18!Image 19!Image 20!Image 21!Image 22!Image 23!Image 24!Image 25!Image 26!Image 27!Image 28!Image 29!Image 30!Image 31!Image 32!Image 33!Image 34!Image 35
盛夏时节，讨论供暖设备似乎有点“不合时宜”——尤其是在纽约刚经历了一轮酷暑热浪之后。但今天，我们还是得聊聊热泵（heat pump）。
热泵是一种利用电力供暖的设备，不仅能效极高，而且正迎来快速普及。此外，很多热泵还能反向运行，在夏天充当空调，为建筑制冷。
根据最新发布的一份报告，美国热泵销量在过去 15 年间增长了两倍。更值得关注的是，在 2026 年第一季度，热泵销量已经比天然气暖炉高出 32%，继续扩大对化石燃料供暖设备的领先优势。
但令人奇怪的是，这一数据出现在一个特殊的时间点：美国针对热泵的关键税收抵免政策，已于 2025 年底正式结束。然而，从市场数据来看，你几乎感觉不到政策退场带来的影响。
为什么热泵的市场仍然如此“火热”？
让我们先快速回顾一下热泵的技术原理：它本质上是利用电力，把热量从一个地方“搬运”到另一个地方。设备内部的制冷剂在封闭回路中不断压缩、膨胀，在循环过程中吸收和释放热量，从而实现供暖或制冷。正因为如此，热泵拥有极高的能源利用效率。虽然前期购买和安装成本较高，但投入使用后，它的运行费用通常明显低于燃气炉、燃油炉以及其他电加热设备。与此同时，由于热泵效率更高，而且无需直接燃烧化石燃料，因此也被认为是建筑脱碳过程中最重要的技术之一。
但热泵一直面临一个重要 挑战：价格。
相比天然气暖炉，热泵的购买和安装成本通常更高。正因如此，许多国家都推出了财政补贴，以鼓励居民安装热泵。在美国，2023 年至 2025 年间安装热泵的家庭，最高可获得 2,000 美元的税收抵免。然而，去年特朗普政府大幅削减了这项税收优惠，并取消了 2022 年《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）中的多项激励政策。从 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，热泵安装不再享受任何联邦财政补贴。
这些让我不禁想起了之前的电动汽车：电动汽车最高 7,500 美元的购车税收抵免，也于 2025 年 9 月 30 日正式结束。在政策截止前一个季度，大量消费者赶在优惠到期前下单，销量迅速冲高；但政策终止后，市场几乎断崖式下跌。虽然如今销量正在逐渐恢复正常，但税收优惠退出对市场的冲击显而易见。
不过，热泵的情况却完全不同。正如加州大学伯克利分校能源经济学家 Lucas Davis 在最新分析中指出的那样，进入 2026 年后的几个月，热泵销量不仅没有下降，反而继续增长。覆盖美国约 90%市场份额的行业协会，空调、供暖与制冷协会（AHRI）的数据显示，去年 12 月到今年 1 月，热泵出货量基本持平；此后，销量开始稳步攀升。
事实上，这种从冬季进入春季后的增长，本来就是热泵市场历年的季节性规 律，2026 年的增长幅度甚至比往年更加明显。如果税收抵免取消真的严重打击了市场需求，我们显然不会看到这样的数据。
正如 Davis 在文章中所分析的，“美国热泵市场似乎已经足够成熟，并不依赖税收 抵免政策来维持增长。”这意味着税收优惠本身或许并不是推动消费者安装热泵的决定性因素；换句话说，即使没有政府补贴，热泵本身也具备足够强的吸引力
2024 年，《麻省理工科技评论》曾将热泵评为当年的十大突破性技术之一。当时，我写下了一句话：“我们已经进入热泵时代。”虽然过去几年里，热泵销量也经历过起伏，但这个“热泵时代”仍然在继续。
过去四年，热泵销量一直超过美国天然气暖炉。不仅如此，中国、德国等国家近年来也都在加速向热泵转型。任何一项新技术的普及都是曲折发展的，何况是热泵这样的突破性产品。不过，令人鼓舞的是，即使政策支持有所减弱、发展过程中不断出现新的阻碍，作为建筑脱碳的重要技术，热泵依然保持着强劲的发展势头。
原文链接： https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/07/16/1140505/heat-pump-sales-us/
Key Quotes
> The US heat pump market appears to have become sufficiently mature and does not rely on tax credit policies to sustain growth.
> We have already entered the heat pump era.
Tags
Heat Pump
Energy Technology
Building Decarbonization
Market Trends
Energy Policy
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