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存栏去化+奶价企稳！乳业股为何集体爆发？
Dairy stocks surged collectively, driven by accelerated dairy cow inventory reduction, rising spot milk prices, and increased fund holdings, with improving supply-demand dynamics boosting the sector. 东 东方财富网Follow·
Yesterday·848 words (about 4 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article notes that dairy concept stocks hit collective limit-up on July 29, mainly driven by two factors: first, dairy cow inventory continues to decline, falling to 577.2万头 at the end of June, down 2.2万头 month-on-month, tightening supply; second, spot milk purchase prices have risen sharply, with mainstream prices at 2.8-3.1元/公斤 and tight regions reaching 3.2-3.5元/公斤, while contract milk prices also turned positive year-on-year, indicating downstream awareness of tightening supply. Furthermore, disclosures from public fund Q2 reports show that active equity funds have significantly increased their holdings in dairy leaders such as Yili Shares and New Hope Dairy month-on-month. Multiple securities institutions believe the dairy sector now preliminarily meets the conditions of 'supply contraction, price stabilization, profit validation,' and the industry is expected to move from a left‑side bottom‑fishing phase to a right‑side confirmation phase, with the entire industrial chain poised to benefit. The disclaimer at the end states that the information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
Main Points
* 1. Dairy cow inventory continues to decline, supply side contracts.
At the end of June, China's dairy cow inventory stood at 577.2万头, down 2.2万头 month-on-month, reflecting a rapid destocking pace; historical data show a continuous decline since the 2023 peak.
* 2. Spot milk prices rise, contract milk prices stabilize and turn positive.
In major production areas, spot milk purchase prices are mainly 2.8-3.1元/公斤, reaching 3.2-3.5元/公斤 in tight regions; contract milk price reached 3.06元/公斤 on July 24, up 0.3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year, seen as a downstream signal of tightening supply.
* 3. Fund holdings increase, institutions are bullish on the sector.
Public fund Q2 reports show that active equity funds' holdings in Yili Shares, New Hope Dairy, United Livestock, and Modern Dairy grew month-on-month by 12.3%, 18.7%, 17.3%, and 17.8% respectively, with institutions believing that supply contraction and price stabilization jointly improve profit outlook.
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辣笔小强 2026-07-29 19:47 上海
乳业概念股7月29日表现强势，板块中均瑶健康、三元股份、李子园、一鸣食品、阳光乳业、南侨食品、天润乳业涨停；骑士乳业、品渥食品涨超10%。
综合市场观点来看，乳业板块的走强，既与科技股大跌导致的板块轮动有关，还受到自身板块基本面改善的带动。
一是我国奶牛存栏量去化节奏的加快。中信建投研报称，6月末，我国奶牛存栏量为577.2万头，环比下降2.2万头，维持较快去化水平。
东方财富Choice数据显示，我国奶牛数量在2007年达到创纪录的876万头后，整体呈震荡减少态势。在2019年减少至610万头的阶段低点后，我国奶牛数量出现反弹，至2023年增加到660万头。2024年、2025年奶牛数量重新走低，2025年末减少至634万头，较2023年减少26万头。
二是牛奶价格呈现散奶领涨、合同奶跟进的显著特征。据21世纪经济报道，5月底以来，主产区散奶收购价大幅走高，当前主流价位2.8-3.1元/公斤，偏紧区域（河北、新疆、江苏等）达3.2-3.5元/公斤，表明即期供需已经偏紧。
合同奶价方面，上半年生鲜乳价格整体处于3.02-3.03元/公斤的低位磨底状态，7月24日，国内主产区生鲜乳价格3.06元/公斤，环比增长0.3%，同比增长1%。业内人士表示，合同奶价是下游乳企对原奶供需判断的滞后反映，其同比转正表明下游也开始感知供给趋紧，筑底信号明显。
此外，从此前披露的公募基金二季报来看，乳品也是今年第二季度基金持仓改善最明确的方向之一。爱建证券表示，第二季度，主动权益基金对伊利股份、新乳业、优然牧业、现代牧业的合计持股数分别环比增长12.3%、18.7%、17.3%、17.8%。
开源证券表示，乳业板块“供给收缩、价格企稳、盈利验证”初步齐备，原奶反转信号逐渐显现，行业有望从“左侧磨底”进入“右侧确认”阶段，全产业链均有望受益。核心乳企（伊利股份、阳光乳业、骑士乳业）、含乳饮料（李子园、均瑶健康、熊猫乳品等）等细分板块受到市场较多关注。 仅供投资者参考，不构成投资建议 阅读原文
Key Quotes
> The dairy sector preliminarily has the conditions of 'supply contraction, price stabilization, profit validation,' raw milk reversal signals are gradually emerging, and the industry is expected to move from a 'left‑side bottom‑fishing' phase to a 'right‑side confirmation' phase, with the entire industrial chain poised to benefit.
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Dairy
Investment & Market
Macroeconomics
Industry Analysis
Stock Market
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