国内成品油价上调机构：预计短期内将高位波动

国内成品油价上调机构：预计短期内将高位波动 - 经济观察网－专业财经新闻网站

Domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose by 685 yuan/ton and 655 yuan/ton respectively, as Middle East tensions pushed up international oil prices and domestic supply-demand factors overlapped, short-term prices will remain at high volatility. 经经济观察网

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上证报中国证券网讯（记者林玉莲）7月31日，据国家发展改革委消息，根据国际市场油价变化情况，自7月31日24时起，国内汽、柴油（标准品）价格每吨分别上调685元、655元。金联创成品油分析师王延婷对上证报记者表示，本轮成品油调价周期（7月17日24时—7月31日24时）内，中东紧张局势支撑国际原油价格走高，预计短期内国内成品油价格将呈现高位波动。本轮调价是2026年第十五次调价，也是2026年的第十次上调。调价过后，2026年成品油调价呈现“十涨四跌一搁浅”格局。据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内，受美伊军事冲突反复等因素影响，国际油价整体涨多跌少、呈阶段性震荡走势，本轮周期均价大幅高于上一轮。就国内成品油市场而言，王延婷分析称，前期国内炼厂开工负荷处于相对低位，尤其进入7月份，地方炼厂检修增加，国内成品油产量一度下降。而国内出口管控适度松绑，主营单位出口资源增加，市场整体资源供应收紧，库存水平回落，对于国内汽柴油行情亦形成利好支撑。中下游用户入市补货增加，主营及地方炼厂出货向好，汽柴油价格整体走高。王延婷表示，进入8月份，主营炼厂开工负荷将适度上调，或加大国内成品油资源供应量。需求方面，暑期出行对于汽油需求仍有支撑，部分柴油用户亦有补货需求。库存方面，国内汽、柴油库存仍处于相对低位，主营及地方炼厂出货压力较小。预计短期内原油价格依然高位震荡，成品油成本端压力较大，部分单位仍有挺价意向。综合来看，国内市场利好支撑仍存，短期内成品油价格将高位波动。下一次调价窗口将在2026年8月14日24时开启。展望后市，隆众资讯原油分析师李彦说，美国方面暂未决定是否对伊朗加大打击力度，市场认为双方仍有谈判余地，且胡塞武装否认封锁曼德海峡及收费计划，地缘局势仍存回旋空间。

Key Quotes

> During this refined oil pricing cycle (from 00:00 on July 17, 2026 to 00:00 on July 31, 2026), Middle East tensions have supported higher international crude oil prices, and short‑term domestic refined oil prices are expected to show high‑level volatility.

> Entering August, the operating load of main refineries is expected to rise moderately, potentially increasing domestic refined oil supply.

> The United States has not yet decided whether to intensify strikes against Iran; the market believes both sides still have room for negotiation, and the Houthi militia denied blocking the Mandeb Strait or imposing fees, leaving the geopolitical situation with some wiggle room.

Tags

Refined oil price

Oil price adjustment

Energy market

Macroeconomics

Energy policy

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国内成品油价上调机构：预计短期内将高位波动