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或为 150 年来最强！超强厄尔尼诺，要来了
The article notes that the ongoing strengthening of the Pacific El Niño could become the strongest event in 150 years, and analyzes its potential impacts on China's typhoons, precipitation, floods, and global temperatures. Follow·
Today·836 words (about 4 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article cites monitoring by China Meteorological Administration's National Climate Center showing that the equatorial central-eastern Pacific reached El Niño conditions in May, with sea temperatures continuing to rise in June, and by July had entered the strong El Niño monitoring category, with the probability of a super El Niño increasing. It is expected to last at least until next spring, with a duration of about 10-11 months. The text explains that El Niño acts as a global climate 'amplifier', altering atmospheric circulation through typical teleconnections and ocean-atmosphere interactions, thereby affecting China's seasonal climate probabilities: in the developing summer, typhoon formation in the northwestern Pacific tends to be more frequent and stronger, with landfall intensity also stronger; during the peak autumn-winter, southern China sees significantly increased precipitation; in the decaying spring-summer, flood risk rises in the Yangtze River basin and Jiangnan region. Chief forecaster Chen Lijuan of the National Climate Center further notes that the global temperature impact of a strong El Niño event often peaks the following year, due to the lagged influence of the ocean on the atmosphere, with the full effect only becoming apparent half a year to a year after the peak. She also cites a World Meteorological Organization report predicting that global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will remain at historical highs or near extremes.
Main Points
* 1. The probability of El Niño strengthening is rising, expected to last until next spring, with a duration of about 10-11 months.
Monitoring by the China Meteorological Administration shows sustained warming in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, already entering the strong El Niño monitoring category, with the probability of a super El Niño event increasing.
* 2. Strong El Niño influences China's seasonal climate probabilities by altering atmospheric circulation, leading to more frequent and stronger typhoons in summer, increased precipitation in southern China during autumn-winter, and heightened flood risk in the Yangtze River basin in spring-summer.
Citing staged impact explanations from Chief Forecaster Chen Lijuan of the National Climate Center: in the developing summer, typhoon formation in the northwestern Pacific tends to be more frequent and stronger, with landfall intensity also stronger; during the peak autumn-winter, southern China sees significantly increased precipitation; in the decaying spring-summer, flood risk rises in the Yangtze River basin and Jiangnan region.
* 3. Global temperatures in the year following a strong El Niño could reach historical highs, due to the lagged influence of the ocean on the atmosphere, with the full impact only becoming apparent half a year to a year after the peak.
Chen Lijuan cites historical data and a World Meteorological Organization report indicating that the global temperature impact of a strong El Niño event often peaks the following year, as the ocean's lagged effect on the atmosphere means the influence only fully manifests half a year to a year after the peak.
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央视财经 2026-08-02 00:10 北京
据中国气象局消息，目前，太平洋上持续增强的厄尔尼诺气候现象，或将成为150年来最强的一次。本轮厄尔尼诺到底有多强？超强厄尔尼诺将给我国带来哪些影响？
发生超强厄尔尼诺事件概率在增大
中国气象局国家气候中心监测显示，赤道中东太平洋于5月达到厄尔尼诺状态的标准，且6月赤道中东太平洋海温持续增暖，7月开始已经进入强厄尔尼诺事件的监测行列，发生超强厄尔尼诺事件的概率在增大。
预计本次事件至少持续到明年春季，整体持续时间接近历史上厄尔尼诺事件的平均长度——10至 11个月。
强厄尔尼 诺事件放大
高温、干旱、强降水等风险概率
厄尔尼诺是改变区域高温、干旱、强降水等风险概率的全球气候“放大器”。强厄尔尼诺事件通过典型遥相关和海气相互作用等方式改变大气环流型，从而改变地区季节气候的概率分布。
国家气候中心首席预报员陈丽娟表示，根据历史数据分析，厄尔尼诺在发生、发展、盛期、衰亡的不同阶段，对我国气候影响存在差异——
* 一般在厄尔尼诺发展年 夏季，西北太平洋台风生成偏多、强度偏强，生成位置偏东南，登陆我国的台风强度偏强，对我国东南和华南沿海地区造成较大的风雨影响，同时有台风北上影响的可能性；
* 厄尔尼诺达到峰值的 秋冬季，我国南方降水明显增多；
* 厄尔尼诺衰减的 春夏季，长江流域及江南地区洪涝风险高。
2027年或成新的全球最暖年份
根据世界气象组织发布的年度《全球年际至年代际气候展望报告》，预计2026—2030年全球平均气温大概率将维持在历史高位或接近历史极值。
陈丽娟介绍，根据历史数据和专家分析，强厄尔尼诺事件的次年，其对全球气候的影响往往达到顶峰。因为海洋对大气的影响具有滞后性，一般在事件峰值后的半年到一年才充分显现。 猜你喜欢 ▌本文来源：央视财经（ID：cctvyscj）综合 你会关注 “近30年来首次”？美日联手，大幅买入！ 每克下跌12-15元！金饰，降价↓ 最新！中行、农行、建行、工行陆续上架→ 2家券商，被证监会立案 今起，一批新规正式施行 *
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Key Quotes
> According to historical data and expert analysis, the impact of a strong El Niño event on global climate often peaks the following year. Because the ocean's influence on the atmosphere has a lag, the full effect generally becomes apparent only half a year to a year after the event's peak.
> El Niño is a global climate 'amplifier' that alters the probabilities of regional risks such as high temperatures, drought, and heavy precipitation.
Tags
Climate Change
El Niño
Climate Impacts
Global Warming
Meteorology
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