Title: 超强厄尔尼诺事件正在形成，或为 150 年来最强 | BestBlogs.dev
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Published Time: 2026-08-02 07:31:00
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超强厄尔尼诺事件正在形成，或为 150 年来最强
According to China Meteorological Administration monitoring, the Pacific El Niño continues to strengthen and could become the strongest event in 150 years, with significant impacts on China's climate and global temperatures. 新 新华社Follow·
Today·761 words (about 4 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
The article reports that monitoring by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration shows that the equatorial central-eastern Pacific reached El Niño conditions in May, with sea temperatures continuing to rise in June, entering strong El Niño monitoring in July, and the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing, expected to last until next spring, lasting about 10-11 months. Citing analysis by Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, the article explains the impact of El Niño on China's climate at different stages: in the developing summer, typhoons are more frequent and stronger; in autumn and winter, southern precipitation increases; in the decaying spring and summer, flood risk rises in the Yangtze River basin and Jiangnan region. Furthermore, citing a World Meteorological Organization report, it notes that the global climate impact of a strong El Niño event often peaks the following year, with the global average temperature projected to remain at historical highs or near extremes from 2026 to 2030. The article ends with a forwarding reminder and image link.
Main Points
* 1. El Niño is strengthening and may become the strongest event in 150 years.
Monitoring by the China Meteorological Administration shows that the equatorial central-eastern Pacific reached El Niño conditions in May, with sea temperatures continuing to rise in June, entering strong El Niño monitoring in July, and the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing, expected to last until next spring, lasting about 10-11 months.
* 2. The impact of El Niño on China's climate varies by stage.
In the developing summer, typhoon formation in the northwestern Pacific is more frequent and stronger, with significant wind and rain impacts on China's southeastern and southern coastal areas; during the peak autumn and winter, southern precipitation markedly increases; in the decaying spring and summer, flood risk rises in the Yangtze River basin and Jiangnan region.
* 3. The global climate impact of a strong El Niño event often peaks the following year, with global temperatures expected to remain high from 2026 to 2030.
Due to the lagged influence of the ocean on the atmosphere, the full impact of the event's peak is not felt until half a year to a year later; a World Meteorological Organization report forecasts that the global average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will likely remain at historical highs or near extremes.
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新华社 2026-08-02 07:31 北京
据中国气象局消息，目前，太平洋上持续增强的厄尔尼诺气候现象，或将成为150年来最强的一次。
本轮厄尔尼诺到底有多强？最强厄尔尼诺将给我国带来哪些影响？一起来看——
8月1日下午，江浙沪等地被高温笼罩。
发生超强厄尔尼诺事件概率在增大
中国气象局国家气候中心监测显示，赤道中东太平洋于5月达到厄尔尼诺状态的标准，且6月赤道中东太平洋海温持续增暖，7月开始已经进入强厄尔尼诺事件的监测行列，发生超强厄尔尼诺事件的概率在增大。
预计本次事件至少持续到明年春季，整体持续时间接近历史上厄尔尼诺事件的平均长度——10至11个月。
强厄尔尼诺事件放大
高温、干旱、强降水等风险概率
厄尔尼诺是改变区域高温、干旱、强降水等风险概率的全球气候“放大器”。强厄尔尼诺事件通过典型遥相关和海气相互作用等方式改变大气环流型，从而改变地区季节气候的概率分布。
国家气候中心首席预报员陈丽娟表示，根据历史数据分析，厄尔尼诺在发生、发展、盛期、衰亡的不同阶段，对我国气候影响存在差异——
* 一般在厄尔尼诺发展年 夏季，西北太平洋台风生成偏多、强度偏强，生成位置偏东南，登陆我国的台风强度偏强，对我国东南和华南沿海地区造成较大的风雨影响，同时有台风北上影响的可能性；
* 厄尔尼诺达到峰值的 秋冬季，我国南方降水明显增多；
* 厄尔尼诺衰减的 春夏季，长江流域及江南地区洪涝风险高。
2027年或成新的全球最暖年份
根据世界气象组织发布的年度《全球年际至年代际气候展望报告》，预计2026—2030年全球平均气温大概率将维持在历史高位或接近历史极值。
陈丽娟介绍，根据历史数据和专家分析，强厄尔尼诺事件的次年，其对全球气候的影响往往达到顶峰。因为海洋对大气的影响具有滞后性，一般在事件峰值后的半年到一年才充分显现。
来源：新华社微信公众号综合人民日报微信、央视新闻、中国天气网 *
转发周知！**!Image 9: 图片**
Key Quotes
> El Niño has differing impacts on China's climate during its onset, development, peak, and decay stages.
> In the year following a strong El Niño event, its impact on global climate often reaches a peak. Because the ocean's influence on the atmosphere has a lag, the full effect typically becomes evident half a year to a year after the event's peak.
> The probability of a super El Niño event occurring is increasing.
Tags
Climate Change
Meteorology
Extreme Weather
Climate Forecast
Global Warming
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