Title: 美联储加息预期降温 | BestBlogs.dev
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Published Time: 2026-08-03 11:11:00
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美联储加息预期降温
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September fell to 64.6%, influenced by declining oil prices and eased Middle East tensions, with markets watching upcoming non-farm data and geopolitical risks. Follow·
Today·710 words (about 3 min)
AI Summary & Key Points
Summary
CCTV Finance reported that the CME Group's 'Fed Watch Tool' showed that, as of 10:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 3, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September was 64.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady was 35.4%; before the oil price drop, this probability had been around 75%. On the same day, U.S. President Trump canceled a military strike against the Middle East and announced he would negotiate with Iran, causing international oil prices to plunge more than 6% at one point, thereby easing market inflation expectations. The article also noted that the Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive times recently, and pointed out that the upcoming July non-farm employment report and subsequent geopolitical developments could again influence rate hike expectations. Overall, it is a factual report citing public data and news links, without issuing any explicit investment advice.
Main Points
* 1. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September fell from about 75% to 64.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to 35.4%.
This change was mainly driven by recent declines in international oil prices and eased Middle East tensions, which reduced inflationary pressures and caused market expectations for a rate hike to ease.
* 2. The sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation expectations, indirectly influencing the Fed's policy direction.
Trump's cancellation of military action against the Middle East and his announcement of negotiations with Iran caused oil prices to fall more than 6% at one point, with the market viewing the oil price drop as a sign of easing inflationary pressure.
* 3. Going forward, the market will focus on the July non-farm employment data and geopolitical developments.
The article notes that the non-farm payroll report, along with future U.S. economic data and geopolitical events, could still raise inflation risks, thereby affecting the Fed's rate decisions.
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央视财经 2026-08-03 11:11 北京
芝商所“美联储观察工具”截至北京时间8月3日上午10点的数据显示，美联储在9月加息的概率为64.6%，维持利率不变的概率为35.4%。而在油价下跌前，加息预测则维持在75%左右。
当地时间8月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布，取消美国在中东地区的原定打击行动，并计划于3日下午与伊朗进行谈判。（新闻链接：美伊谈判，最新消息！）受此消息影响，3日亚洲交易时段，国际油价一度大跌超6%，截至北京时间3日上午10点，纽商所9月交货的轻质原油期货和10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格仍维持下跌，跌幅仍双双超过5%。
另一方面，油价大跌压低了市场通胀预期，在一定程度上缓和了美联储加息的压力。对于美联储接下来的利率路径，芝商所“美联储观察工具”截至北京时间3日上午10点的数据显示，美联储在9月加息的概率为64.6%，维持利率不变的概率为35.4%。而在油价下跌前，加息预测则维持在75%左右。就在上周，美联储宣布维持利率不变，这也是美联储今年以来第五次维持利率不变。（新闻链接：美联储宣布：维持利率不变）
有市场分析认为，美联储可能延至12月才启动加息周期，但前提是通胀与劳动市场数据持续偏强。本周晚些时候，美国将公布7月非农就业报告，将进一步影响市场对9月利率决议的预测。此外，未来一段时间的美国经济数据以及地缘政治的发展，仍可能重新推升通胀风险，市场仍在密切关注9月加息的可能性。 猜你喜欢 ▌本文来源：央视财经（ID：cctvyscj） 你会关注 七国宣布：继续增产 国际油价，大跌超6% 查实作弊！河南通报“三支一扶”事件核查结果 三家A股公司，被罚！ 微信地震预警，上线新功能 *
监制/柯成韵
主编/武洋
记者/周子璇 编 辑/孙永慧
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Key Quotes
> The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is 64.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 35.4%.
> Following this news, international oil prices plunged more than 6% during the Asian trading session on the 3rd.
> The Fed announced it would hold rates steady, marking the fifth time this year that the Fed has kept rates unchanged.
Tags
Macroeconomics
Monetary Policy
Oil Prices
Geopolitics
Non-farm Payrolls
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